Friday, March 25, 2011

Final GDP numbers for 2010:Q4

Today the BEA released the third and final estimate for GDP growth in 2010:Q4. The revision from the first estimate (the "advance" estimate) to the final estimate was small: the growth rate was revised down from 3.2% to 3.1%. The "advance" estimate is published about one month after the end of the quarter, the "preliminary" estimate is released two months after the end of the quarter, and the "final" estimate, you guessed right, is published approximately three months after the quarter's end.

By components, the largest revision in absolute terms was for the change in inventories, whose negative contribution shrunk from 3.7% to 3.42%. In relative terms the largest revision was for for nonresidential investment, whose positive contribution went up from 0.43% to 0.73%.

2010:Q4 was characterized by a very large negative contribution of the change in inventories, and a large positive contribution of imports (which means that imports shrunk with respect to the previous quarter). I expect a reversal of both in 2011:Q1.

No comments: