Comments on EconWeekly: A ranking of WSJ forecasters

Ivan Kitov:As I explain in the post:"I only includ...

2008-05-02T19:34:00.000-05:00

Ivan Kitov:

As I explain in the post:

"I only include the predictions submitted at the beginning of the months of February, May, August and November for quarters Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, respectively."

So the prediction for, say, Q1 is the one submitted in the first week of February. The advance estimate for Q4, which is the naive forecast for Q1, is released on January 30, and is therefore roughly contemporary with the WSJ forecasters' predictions.

There is a big difference between current forecas...

2008-05-02T09:40:00.000-05:00

There is a big difference between current forecasts from the WSJ forecasters and the naive one. The latter was made 3 months ago, and should be compared to contemporary forecasts, not with the current ones. This is the procedure.
It was checked many times (actually Atkeson and Ohanian published a paper in 2001
Atkeson, A., and L.E. Ohanian. 2001. "Are Phillips Curves Useful for Forecasting Inflation?" FRB Minneapolis Quarterly Review (Winter) pp. 2-11. http://www.mpls.frb.org/research/qr/qr2511.html

) and always showed that the naive one forecast at one quarter horizon is very hard to beat.

Much more interesting I think...rather than GDP is...

2008-04-25T23:32:00.000-05:00

Much more interesting I think...rather than GDP is the much more important... what is the FED going to do about it...

Here there is remarkable consistency... There is virtual total agreement that the FED will stop EASING by June ... given their move in JUNE will be on hold for the rest of the YEAR..

This is probably a better indicator than their real GDP forecasts ...